Senators will go as far as Stutzle, Sanderson, Tkachuk take them

OTTAWA — In the NHL, you’re only as good as your stars.

And the Ottawa Senators have three of them in Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson.

Each of that threesome sits among the league’s most dominating players thanks to a unique skill set: from the pure power and energy of Tkachuk; to the electrifying speed and skill of Stutzle; to the defensive aptitude, hockey IQ and elegance of Sanderson. All three are still entering their primes, at age 26 for Tkachuk and 23 for Stutzle and Sanderson.

In Winnipeg on Monday, the Senators needed their superstars to put a halt to what was looking like another crushing defeat. They delivered in what became a 3-2 overtime win.

With the goalie pulled, down a goal late in the third period, Stutzle neatly fed Sanderson, who proceeded to walk to the point and find a shooting lane with poise rather than hesitancy. With the helping hand of a fortunate deflection, the puck found the back of the net to tie the game and secure a point.

In overtime, Stutzle crunched Cole Perfetti to turn over the puck. He then raced down the ice, Sanderson smartly launched a pass off the boards onto Stutzle’s stick for a two-on-one, and the German softly and precisely found Tkachuk for a laser of a one-timer for his 12th career overtime winner, most in franchise history.

Tkaptain Tklutch.

That sequence of events had the smell of a season-defining win. The Senators’ best three players simply would not stand for another loss after dropping four of their previous five.

It’s been a start-and-stop type of season for the Senators, in part because of the absence of Tkachuk, who missed 20 games with a thumb injury. Entering Wednesday, they sat four points outside of a playoff spot thanks to a combination of injuries, poor goaltending, awful penalty killing and lack of goals at five-on-five. If the Senators had their current record at this exact point last season, they would have been in a playoff spot. Not this time.

Oddly, the Senators’ record has been much better with Tkachuk out of the lineup. But the analytics tell a different story: with Tkachuk, the Senators are head-and-shoulders better. On the season, the team ranks 18th in expected goals share at five-on-five; since Tkachuk returned, the Senators sit second.

Tkachuk has scored just two goals this season, true. But one silenced the Bell Centre in Montreal, and the other quieted panic in Sens nation with an overtime win in Winnipeg. Despite not scoring at the rate he’d like, Tkachuk still is almost a point-per-game player; he has the 19th best expected goals share in the league at five-on-five at 59 per cent (minimum 100 minutes played).

The truth is that the way Tkachuk, Stutzle and Sanderson have played has kept the Senators afloat.

Despite not being fast, Tkachuk’s ability to hold onto pucks on the walls and maintain possession along the boards is second to none, explaining his elite analytics. His shooting percentage is 4.1, the lowest of his career, but unlikely to hold there, as he’s never finished a season lower than 7.7. The goals will come, as one did in Winnipeg.

Tkachuk also has that unquantifiable it factor, from his infectious personality to his ability to fight, plow over opponents and score.

The partnership that Tkachuk and Stutzle have formed has become one of the best in the NHL. Alongside Fabian Zetterlund, the duo has the 11th-best expected goals share of any line in the league (minimum 75 minutes). Stutzle has been dominant of late, tallying nine points in his last four games; only Connor McDavid has more points in the last week.

Stutzle is winning 55 per cent of his draws, killing penalties and driving the sixth-best power play in the NHL. He is on pace for 38 goals and 84 points, which would be slightly below his career year in 2022-23 but come with much-improved defensive ability.

“I don't even know how many breakaways I had the year where I scored 39 goals, probably almost 10 or 12 breakaways, so (now) we don't cheat at all,” Stutzle told Sportsnet.ca last season.

The question surrounding Stutzle heading into this season surrounded his true ability as a goal scorer. Is he a 39-goal player or was that an aberration? Could Stutzle regain his scoring touch after scoring just 42 goals in the last two seasons?

Now, he may score 42 this season alone.

Still, maybe the best of the Senators three stars this season has been Sanderson.

Sanderson ranks 13th overall in wins above replacement, according to Evolving Hockey. He's played nearly flawlessly despite roughly 30 minutes of ice time per night due to Thomas Chabot’s injury.

The question for how good Sanderson could be has always been about his offence — not defence.

This season, he’s quarterbacking the sixth-best power play while sitting second in man-advantage points by a defenceman. He also has two game-tying goals with under two minutes left, including the clutch offensive display against the Jets.

Sanderson has increased his point total every season of his career and should do the same this season, barring injury. Again, he's still just 23.

Norris Trophy ballots beckon for Sanderson — his name is floated around just beneath the likes of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. 

Tkachuk, Stutzle and Sanderson are on pace to combine for 225 points. That’s more than the following trios:

• Nikita Kucherov-Brayden Point-Victor Hedman

• Artemi Panarin-J.T. Miller- Adam Fox

• William Nylander- Auston Matthews- Morgan Rielly

Sure, we might look back at the win over the Jets and say it was just one game — except that it’s been part of a large trend of elite play.

The Senators made the playoffs last season with lesser versions of all of Tkachuk, Sanderson and Stutzle. Now, the latter two specially have elevated themselves.

The Big 3 provides reason to believe the Senators have what it takes to return to the post-season once again.